Friday, January 22, 2010

Possible Good picks

Everready Industries

Kingfisher loss widens, Spicejet posts Rs.109 Cr profit

Strong growth in passanger traffic in domestic industry-> net profit Rs.108.9 crore SpiceJet CEO Sanjay Agarwal optimistic
Kingfisher-2nd largest private carrier- loss as expenses on exceptional items offset gains from higher load factor.

ongc q3 profit 23% up, IGL profit up 54%

better performance because of less outgo under feul subsidy, higher price realisation becos of appreciation of rupee. 7 new discoveries in Q3, but no disclosure of reserves. Crude o/p declined by 3% while gas o/p flat.
ONGC sells crude oil to refiners IOC, HPCL, BPCL at discount so that they can sell petrol,diesel, cooking gas at GoI determined rates.

Indraprastha Gas (IGL) engaged in natural gas business reported net profit of 58.9 crore.

Bhel profit rises 35%, sales growth off mark

BHEL, India's biggest power equipment maker recorded slowest sales growth in FY010.
No revision in sales target for year.
rival of LnT

LnT profit falls, cuts revenue forecast

L&T-country's largest engg company
first sales fall in 7 yrs; cuts revenue growth target, profit falls 50%;

Analysts said L&T might recover next quarter becos of huge exposure in engineering & construction business, where India is expected to pick up. 

Saturday, January 16, 2010

oil rises to $80

Oil rised on expectation of economic recovery in the US. Though, industrial o/p in the US is less, it is expected to recover soon. US is the top energy consumer.

Reliance Infratel & Jubiliant Foodworks IPO

Reliance Infratel to raise 5000 crore by selling 10% stake-reduces promoters holding to 85%.
4000 crore goes to repayment of loans to Reliance Comm Infrastructure (RCIL).

Jubiliant Foodworks: Dominos pizza chain in the domestic market. 2.2 crore shares of Rs.10 each.

GIL acquires tower business of AIRCELL

GIL infra is catapulted to top slot in telecom infra business by acquisition of AIRcell's 17,500 towers for Rs.8400 crore all cash deal which was the cheapest in sector. Enterprise value stands at Rs.48 lakh/tower.
Tata teleservices-Quipo telecom = 52 lakh/tower
Bharti infratel= 2 crore/twr

Tenancy ratio=avg no of tenants/tower has to be increased.
If tenancy ratio at current level of 1.2, break even period of 10 years. If 2.3 by FY13, 6 yrs.
GIL enjoys good penetration in rural area. There, penetration increasing while urban area is getting saturated.
75% of GIL's towers r ground based, not roof top towers. thus attract higher returns.
MNCs ATC & Crown Castle have tenancy ratio b/w 3 -3.5 .

Pharma co.s likely to put modest to good show

Ruppe appreciation of 3% during december quarter->negative impact on export driven growth
Positive factors: fewer or no forex losses, lower raw material costs, better domestic market,
Major players: Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy's (DRL), Lupin [Likely outperformers this quarter] Sun Pharma, Cipla [Modest performance]

Ranbaxy is expecting profit of Rs. 193 crore this quarter against loss of 680 crore same quarter last year. Excluding Ranbaxy, avg profit is likely to grow by modest 9%.
Ranbaxy profitable because of exclusivity period it enjoyed in the US during launch of generic version of Valtrex.
DRL: improved performance in the US, but no exclusivity period. Revenue likely to drop by 10% YoY, while earning flat. German operations to drag down operational margin.
Cipla: Strong show in domestic formulation business. Exports adversely affected due to currency appreciation.
Lupin: Business increased in the US & emerging markets including India.
Mid-cap pharma: Cadila healthcare & Ipca labs are likely to report robust growth due to good performance in emerging markets as well as the US.
(CRAMS) Contract manufacturing business likely to boost fortunes of Piramal Healthcare.
Key factors: currency stability, diversified derisked business model

cement prices likely to increase

On thursday, midcap cement stocks rallied on speculation that cement prices are likely to increase sensing good demand in residential property segment. Indian cement industry is ing growth of about 8%, 2nd only to China.

rupee appreciates

Rupee appreciated to around Rs.45.5/dollar on the back of improving economy & better industrial production marking resilence of Indian economy.

Inflation at 7.31%. Money policy may b tightened.

steel & zinc prices hiked just like sugar, potato prices to take inflation to 7.31%. Bad monsoon-> agri products price hike. This hike also affecting other commodity prices. Cheap money policy during recession is fuelling demand for cement, cars & steel. Subbarao is expected to tighten money supply by increasing bank reserve ratios.
Food price increase-> processed food prices increase
Petroleum products UP->transportation cost UP->industrial products price UP

GE eyes big gains in India in wind energy

John Krenicki, Jr. Vice Chairman of GE-> Indian wind energy space 5th largest in the world; installed capacity of 10,900 MW and he expects 6000 MW wind power capacity addition in next 2 years.
GE's energy infrastructure business, provides technology solutions in five verticals aviation, energy, oil & gas, rail & water process.
GE energy is looking for opportunities in oil & gas, transmission & distribution & smart grid.

Renuka sugar, Sanwaria Agro net up

Shree Renuka sugars consolidated net profit jumped 24 fold to Rs. 260 crore for quarter ended december. Stand alone profit is 194.7 crore
But prices of stocks fell becos GoI announcing a slew of measures to control rising prices of sugar.
Main Players: Sree Renuka Sugar, Simbhaoli sugar, Oudh Sugar Mills.
GoI has allowed duty free sugar imports.
Soyabeen processor [Sanwaria Agro] net up 3 fold to Rs.9.3 crore agnst 3.4 crore last quarter.

Escorts Oct-Dec net profit at Rs.23 Cr

Tractor & farm equipment amnufacturer Escorts [which follows Oct-Sept fin year] Q1 profit at 23.4 crore as compared to net loss of Rs.0.34 crore last quarter.
Escorts would foray into manufacturing of railway wagons, besides expanding the basket of products under its tractor division: Escorts Joint MD Nikhil Nanda

Banks Q3FY10 net up

Healthy loan growth & lower interest expenses helped HDFC Q3FY10 profit zoom 31.6% to 818.5 crore.
Axis bank Q3FY10 rises 31% to Rs. 656Cr.
IDBI Q3FY10 rises 29% to Rs. 287 crore. (Rise in net interest income & improved fee income)
IndusInd Bank (Hinduja Grp promoted) profit doubles to Rs. 88 Cr.
UCO bank net up 43% at Rs.246Cr.

TCS Q3FY10 net profit rises 34%

TCS: India's biggest software exporter
TCS CEO: N Chandrasekaran
Indian IT & back office service industry: $60 bilion
net profit of TCS rose 34% to Rs.1824 crore during Q3FY10, while revenue rose 5.1%.
Like Infosys (revised revenue growth rate to 3.8% from 1.7%) , TCS revised its business outlook to positive. TCS added 32 new customers during the quarter.
TCS, whose main customers are financial services like Citigroup, JP Morgan & UK's Cardiff group, said that revenue growth from financial services is 7.3%.

Indian insurers game for adventure sports

Indian insurers game for adventure sports, which are typically offered by Wanderlust Travels, Ozone, Gravity Adventures [All bungee jumping].
Some of the insurance players who offer these:
ICICI prudential life insurance: underwriting & claims head Poonam Bardwaj
Future Generali India provides cover for loss of life to those who do not do it just as hobby. - Balaram Sarma, chief of operations