Tuesday, June 23, 2009

NCDEX Knowledge Beareau Link

This link on NCDEX site gives the research reports of most of the important commodities in India & worldwide. Also take a look at the other links given in "Knowledge Beareau" tab.

Ashish Chugh & Ashwani Gujral

On CNBC-TV18,
on last 2 days, Chugh has recommended following stocks:
Nucleus software Atul Ltd Uflex Gulf Oil India & replaced 3 of them by:
Gwalior Chemicals Ahluwalia contracts Sunil Hightech
He had also recommended SRF.

Ashwani recommended:
Kalindee Rail Voltas Mphasis Patni & replaced 3 of them by:
Titagarh Wagons BEML Texmaco

Ashwani is very keen on rail stocks.

Hindalco & RIL

I bought Hindalco on the suggestion of Sudarshan Sukhani. Though, I felt like I did a mistake, he is bullish abt it even now. He has revised target from 115 to 105 now. S P Tulsian feels that demand for non-ferrous metals is on rise & Hindalco has reached its bottom. For ferrous metal companies margin is on decline.
So it wasn't a bad step really.

As it was expected; NTPC has issued a statement that it is ready to buy gas at $4.2 per mmBtu from non-controversial plants and this has led to increase in RIL share prices.

useful link explaining standalone vs consolidated

This link explains in detail, the difference between standalone & consolidated financial results.
I have left comment appreciating the effort.
Minority Interest is explained very well on investopedia.

Monday, June 15, 2009

hindalco

I bought hindalco at Rs.103 after one of the analysts on cnbc tv18 said that it is expected to touch 115 soon. I shouldn't have done that just because some1 said that & the market was dominated by bull.
I expect a rally before the budget when I will sell the stock.
Keeping an eye on Cu & Al futures will also help predict the movement of this stock.

RIL & RNRL case

A division bench of the Bombay High Court today asked Mukesh Ambani-promoted Reliance Industries (RIL) to sell natural gas to Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL), an Anil Ambani group company, at $2.34 per million British thermal units (mBtu), which is 44 per cent lower than the price fixed by the government.
Price of RIL tumbled down by 7.48% to Rs. 2180.45, while I had bought it at Rs.2201. I thought that as sensex is down by 2.38%, which is much smaller than drop in RIL shares; the markets might have over-reacted. RIL is too big to fall due to such kind of events and it will gather momentum by the time budget is presented (6th July tentatively). One analyst said that the drop in share price is just too big as compared to the dent the actual implementation will cause to company. Another article opined that there is no way that RNRL could sell the gas to other companies & its own power projects (esp. 7000 megawatt Dadri project) are still on the drawing board. So, RIL can just deny selling to RNRL for the moment. Other thing, RIL could move to company court or supreme court; thus delaying the implementation.
On the other hand, the case on deal of RIL with NTPC is highly likely to go against RIL after the verdict against RNRL is known.
JP Morgan has recommended 'overweight' on RIL.
I intend to sell RIL after it crosses 2230 mark.

sesa goa acquires dempo mining

Sesa Goa, a Vedanta group company, has acquired the Goa-based Iron ore mining company, Dempo Mining, in an all-cash deal of Rs 1,750 crore (including working Capital of Rs 145 crore). The company expects to fund the acquisition cost of Rs 1,750 crore entirely through the cash in its books. Notably, Sesa had substantial cash and equivalents of Rs 4,143 crore at the end of FY2009.
I bought share for Rs.203 & sold for Rs.210 on same day and earnt profit of approx. Rs. 5.5 after deduction of charges.

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Demand & supply of steel

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_steel_producers
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steel_production_by_country
http://www.worldsteel.org/index.php?action=publicationdetail&id=81
give information about the supply side of steel production. Above 2 links on wikipedia provide information from references on worldsteel.
A lot of information is available on sites of worldsteel & AISI especially on Bookshop>Publication List link on worldsteel.
China's steel production is supposed to get consolidated. China is already net exported of steel. India is expected to reach 124 million tons by 2012 and 275 million tons by 2020 which could make her second largest steel maker.
South Korea has stabilised at around 46-48 mil. tonnes, and Brazil at around 30+ million tonnes.

Saturday, June 6, 2009

NCDEX for finding spot price

I have searched the link of NCDEX where the spot prices of various commodities sold in India could be found. It will be interesting to see how the stocks of companies selling the mentioned commodity and of those which use the given commodity as raw material move vis-a-vis change in price of commodity.
Right now, I am a little confused how I should go about gathering more and relevant investment specific knowledge. Soon, I will come up with something.

More about Geodesic from DNA money

Geodesic is focussed on information, communication & entertainment for mobile phones & desktops under brand name "Mundu".  Key points:

1)owner of Chandamama, the liabrary of 15000 stories

2) Global presence

India: Mumbai, Bengalore US: Silicon Valley Europe:Sweden, Germany, UK & in Hong Koing

It is also present in South American & African markets through acquisitions.

3) Products:

Mundu IM- used by more than 7% iPhone users.

Mundu speak- VoIP

Mundu Radio technology- used by Idea radio

Geodesic also has technology for Live TV on mobile phones.

4) Take over of Picopeta has been used to develop product called Geo Amida, which is marketed to government & private sector. Revenue from it will start accrueing this year.

Friday, June 5, 2009

Geodesic ratio analysis using Excel Macro

Finally, I created Excel macro using VBA coding for ratio analysis of company's financials. I am going to add some ratios very soon. Though my current knowledge of macro VBA programming is sufficient, it is still preliminary. I need to build up upon what I already know.
I used the macro for analysis of Geodesic stock & compared my results with those given in DNA Money dated 25 May,09. All results are matching with the exception of Net Worth. I should take a look at it again, I think. Here are some observations:

Sales, EBITDA & PAT growth rates are 103%, 93% & 90% respectively which are very good taking into account the current slowdown in major economies around the world.
Net Profit Margin is 44%. It is good, because it means almost half of what you are selling is your PAT. & that is expected to grow at the rate as high as mentioned above.

P/E ratio is 3.88.
Market price to book value ratio is 2.31.
So, stock is undervalued.

Only ratio that makes me worry is debt/equity ratio. It is as high as 1.06 .
But, PAT of 282 Cr & debt of 506 Cr. makes me feel that if the business flourishes the debt will be taken care of.
Other thing is that I bought equity at comparitively high price of Rs. 126. It then touched a low of Rs.111 & currently howering around Rs. 126. I hope that it will perform good in long term.