Pharma co.s likely to put modest to good show

Ruppe appreciation of 3% during december quarter->negative impact on export driven growth
Positive factors: fewer or no forex losses, lower raw material costs, better domestic market,
Major players: Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy's (DRL), Lupin [Likely outperformers this quarter] Sun Pharma, Cipla [Modest performance]

Ranbaxy is expecting profit of Rs. 193 crore this quarter against loss of 680 crore same quarter last year. Excluding Ranbaxy, avg profit is likely to grow by modest 9%.
Ranbaxy profitable because of exclusivity period it enjoyed in the US during launch of generic version of Valtrex.
DRL: improved performance in the US, but no exclusivity period. Revenue likely to drop by 10% YoY, while earning flat. German operations to drag down operational margin.
Cipla: Strong show in domestic formulation business. Exports adversely affected due to currency appreciation.
Lupin: Business increased in the US & emerging markets including India.
Mid-cap pharma: Cadila healthcare & Ipca labs are likely to report robust growth due to good performance in emerging markets as well as the US.
(CRAMS) Contract manufacturing business likely to boost fortunes of Piramal Healthcare.
Key factors: currency stability, diversified derisked business model